Which Mask is Better to Protect Covid-19 Virus  

RE: Which Mask is Better to Protect Covid-19 Virus

@bobstro

You have not said anything that is far off.  

RE: Which Mask is Better to Protect Covid-19 Virus

Posted by: @bobstro

I reference the Johns Hopkins University data. Depending what statistic you prefer look at:

• The US is rated 90th in case mortality at 1.8%. 89 countries have better case mortality rates.
• The US is rated 192nd in cases per 100,000 at 94.97. 161 countries have fewer cases per 100K population.

Argh, stupid edit window. 162nd out of 174 listed countries. 161 countries have fewer cases per 100K population. Doesn't make me feel a lot better, but there you go.

Charles, correct me if I'm wrong, but of the 10 leading causes of death in the US:

1. Heart disease
2. Cancer
3. Accidents
4. Chronic lower respiratory disease
5. Stroke
6. Alzheimer's
7. Diabetes
8. Influenza & pneumonia
9. Nephritis
10. Suicide

Only number 8 (influenza & pneumonia) are transmissible and airborne, correct? It would be a wonderful thing if we could limit more of the leading causes of death of our citizens simply by practicing a bit of hygiene.

RE: Which Mask is Better to Protect Covid-19 Virus

Posted by: @cybrsage

[...] Interesting that Belgium tops the list of mortality rates and they have mandatory mask wearing both inside (from July onward) and outside (from Dec onward). 

From what I understand, that is largely due to age demographics. With a larger elderly population, mortality rates will be higher. Timing is also, as always, everything. China is still high on the death toll simply because they got hit first, even if they've improved markedly.

[...] Also, why would mortality rates be lower if the spread is merely slowed and not prevented?  Over time, the exact same number of people get the virus with and without the mask, and the mortality rate would stay the same.    Seriously, you either get covid19 or you do not. 

It's a question of waiting until vaccines can contribute to herd immunity rather than requiring every individual to be infected. If we accept that COVID has a roughly 1.8% lethality among the US population, that's nearly 6,000,000 who can be expected to die from "letting it take its course". If slowing the pace of the disease gains time to introduce vaccines and more effective treatments that reduce that percentage, I think it's worth doing what we can to slow it.

The mask does not make the virus less deadly when you do get it.  Maybe I am missing something, maybe there is proof a mask makes the disease less deadly when you do end up getting it, but I cannot see how.  Since this is your claim, go ahead and explain it, I would love to learn about that if it is true. 

Where have I claimed that the mask reduces lethality? I have seen some mention of such an effect in the press, but would just as soon avoid contracting COVID to start with. Again, wearing a mask reduces the odds of infecting others, particularly when the wearer is not aware that they are infectious.

It would make a huge difference in the number of people willing to wear a mask, I am sure.

I don't think so. This has become a challenge to some, even with the death toll as high as it is.

I already mentioned the over reporting done by the US.  That is a well known issue.  The mortality rate in the US is far higher due to counting deaths from other reasons as covid deaths when the person is found to also be infected by covid when then died.  This is due to increased funding for every death counted as covid.  Like the old saying goes, follow the money.

See above. The US death toll attributed to COVID in the US in the partial year 2020 is higher than the bottom 4 leading causes of death already and can be expected to exceed the total from the bottom 5 in weeks. I'm not sure exactly how that can be over-reported. If diabetes and suicide could be transmitted by air, I think we'd be seeing even more coverage.

Also, the mortality rate is plummeting as more testing is done. 

I haven't seen it plummeting. I have seen it rising more slowly as more testing is done, which makes sense. As we expand testing to higher levels, higher numbers of non-infected are expected. After all, if you restrict testing to emergency rooms, you'd expect the positives to be higher. Similarly, as testing increases, the number of hospitalizations in many areas remains flatter (not flat) compared to test numbers. They are still going up, however. Increased testing only helps identify those who are sick or were sick and didn't know it. This is invaluable to know for planning on the individual level.

  It is like suddenly adding 20 cops to a road to look for speeders where there was only 1 for a long time.  The number of speeders did not increase, detection of those speeders increased, they were always there, undetected. 

I don't think COVID deaths, currently at 311,000, have been undetected. Using your analogy, they are more likely under-reported.

The number of covid cases are not skyrocketing, our detection of them has skyrocketed...they were always there, undetected.  As this detection increases, we are seeing that almost everyone who gets covid barely even knows they are sick (mostly a loss of smell) and therefor never enter a hospital or die.  This causes the mortality rate to plummet due to maths.

Not quite sure where you get "not skyrocketing". If half of the reported 3,000 deaths are incorrect, we're losing 1,500 US citizens a day currently. That's much higher than in spring. 

Yep, flu deaths will be reduced by masks as well as social distancing.  I did not discount that, I offered an "in addition to it" statement using the phrase "in addition to".  That phrase does not mean "all by itself", it means "that and this also".  Thinking there is only one reason is quite foolish.

If you assume the same number of people that died from influenza and pneumonia in 2018 were misdiagnosed as COVID, there are still over 270,000 other COVID deaths. At this point, you can try a pretty large margin of error and still come up with a high death toll.

Yes, the number of infections will keep increasing, that is how a virus (and a coronavirus) works and always has.  This is nothing new.  It will increase until herd immunity is reached, at which point it will quickly drop to a low rate. 

Herd immunity is enhanced with far lower deaths if you can introduce effective treatments and vaccines. We know this from polio and smallpox, both of which were common in the US. The introduction of vaccines is what helped us achieve herd immunity. Until then, the diseases had been present in our population. Herd immunity was never achieved with these diseases. Now they are eradicated. This is nothing new.

That 310,000 number you mention is well known to be too high.  It took public shaming in the US State of PA to get the government there to reduce the official covid deaths.  The coroners who reported the number had to go to the press and say the State was lying to get them to change it. 

What number do you think it actually is? Cut it in half if you like and it's still not a number that can be ignored.

The US is over stating the number of deaths, this has been known for a long time.  Just like it is known that China is way under reporting their deaths.  A country with close to 2 billion people, where the coronavirus started, has only 4700 deaths and only 94,000 confirmed cases?  Yeah, and the Democratic Republic of North Korea is a democracy...

It's not a contest. Being 1st or 200th is not good. 

Covid19 is deadly, no one ever claimed it was not.  What we DO know to be true is that the masks work by almost everyone merely slow the spread of the virus

Merely slowing it and flattening the curve so as not to overwhelm emergency services is exactly the point.

, that almost everyone who gets infected have very slight symptoms,

What number do you consider "almost"?

and that 62% of children are immune to it (complete with antibodies) without every having been exposed to it. 

That leaves 50M children who are not immune to it. Something like 6.5% of the US population. (Somebody check my math please!)

We know schools are the safest place for kids right now, for covid19 issues, mental health issues, and nutritional issues. 

Schools are closing as quickly as they open many places. I do not agree with "we know" at all.

We know face shields only work if you are REALLY close to the person (like a dentist who is working).  We know social distancing is very important, far more important than the ill fitted masks.

It is a cumulative effect. Defense-in-depth. You want multiple independent overlapping and complementary layers of protection. Defense-in-depth is more effective than any one layer of protection.

RE: Which Mask is Better to Protect Covid-19 Virus

A little clarification on the position of the American Academy of Pediatrics, their web page states:

With the above principles in mind, the AAP strongly advocates that all policy considerations for the coming school year should start with a goal of having students physically present in school. Unfortunately, in many parts of the United States, there is currently uncontrolled spread of SARS-CoV-2. Although the AAP strongly advocates for in-person learning for the coming school year, the current widespread circulation of the virus will not permit in-person learning to be safely accomplished in many jurisdictions. The importance of in-person learning is well-documented, and there is already evidence of the negative impacts on children because of school closures in the spring of 2020. Lengthy time away from school and associated interruption of supportive services often results in social isolation, making it difficult for schools to identify and address important learning deficits as well as child and adolescent physical or sexual abuse, substance use, depression, and suicidal ideation. This, in turn, places children and adolescents at considerable risk of morbidity and, in some cases, mortality. Beyond the educational impact and social impact of school closures, there has been substantial impact on food security and physical activity for children and families. The disproportionate impact this has had on Black, Latinx, and Native American/Alaskan Native children and adolescents must also be recognized. 

The goal is to safely have in-person learning. That doesn't mean COVID concerns should be disregarded.

The AAP strongly recommends that school districts promote racial/ethnic and social justice by promoting the well-being of all children in any school-reopening plan, particularly children living in marginalized communities. To address these disparities, federal, state,and local governments should allocate resources to provide equitable access to educational supports. These recommendations are provided, acknowledging that our understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic is changing rapidly.

Their primary concern is the impact of closures on under-served communities. Their actual recommendation is to provide better funding for these populations regardless of whether they do in-person or remote learning so that they are not put at more risk than more affluent populations. Nowhere do they state that concerns about COVID should outweigh these other concerns.

RE: Which Mask is Better to Protect Covid-19 Virus

Posted by: @bobstro

Posted by: @bobstro

I reference the Johns Hopkins University data. Depending what statistic you prefer look at:

• The US is rated 90th in case mortality at 1.8%. 89 countries have better case mortality rates.
• The US is rated 192nd in cases per 100,000 at 94.97. 161 countries have fewer cases per 100K population.

Argh, stupid edit window. 162nd out of 174 listed countries. 161 countries have fewer cases per 100K population. Doesn't make me feel a lot better, but there you go.

Charles, correct me if I'm wrong, but of the 10 leading causes of death in the US:

1. Heart disease
2. Cancer
3. Accidents
4. Chronic lower respiratory disease
5. Stroke
6. Alzheimer's
7. Diabetes
8. Influenza & pneumonia
9. Nephritis
10. Suicide

Only number 8 (influenza & pneumonia) are transmissible and airborne, correct? It would be a wonderful thing if we could limit more of the leading causes of death of our citizens simply by practicing a bit of hygiene.

Different sources report different numbers but this is a reputable ranking.  

There are two things I will change from here on out.  I will wear a mask and I will not go to work sick.  

RE: Which Mask is Better to Protect Covid-19 Virus

Just ran some numbers to evaluate the severity of the outbreak... not that it's been a question, but I like hard numbers.

I'm using the CDC numbers for the leading causes of death in the US for 2017 as a basis since those can be considered untainted by COVID results.

If we accept the numbers released by countries, states, and local health officials as of Friday, December 18, 2020:

• The total COVID-related death toll in the US is at approx. 311,000.
• The daily death rate in the US is at approx. 3,000.

This means that COVID-related deaths:

• Already exceed any one of 8 of the top 10 leading causes of death in the US.
• Already exceed the TOTAL of 4 of the top 10 leading causes of death in the US.
• Will exceed 5 of the top 10 leading causes of death in the US in roughly 18 days (early-mid January).

Recognizing that some folks are skeptical of these numbers, we can plug in revised numbers:

• If COVID-related deaths have been inflated by 200%, the death toll in the US is at approx. 155,500.
• If daily COVID-related deaths have been inflated by 300%, the daily death rate in the is approx. 990.

This means that using these more skeptical numbers, COVID-related deaths: 

• Already exceed any one of 6 of the top 10 leading causes of death in the US.
• Will exceed the TOTAL deaths from 3 of the top 10 leading causes of death in the US in approximately 3 days
• Will exceed the TOTAL deaths from 4 of the top 10 leading causes of death in approximately 89 days (before best-case estimates for vaccine availability if you believe in that stuff).
• Will exceed the TOTAL deaths from 5 of the top 10 leading causes of death in the US in approximately 212 days (around July).

I'm curious what numbers we have to plug in to make the deaths acceptable. You can't outrun exponential growth. Using a 1.8% mortality rate and a US population of 328M, we're looking at a bit over 5,900,000 potential deaths, so there's a lot of room for it to get much worse. Checking of my math is appreciated.

RE: Which Mask is Better to Protect Covid-19 Virus

I am not sure that any deaths from covid are acceptable.  I wish we could have eliminated COVID earlier.  It was not in the cards.  We have another 6-12 months of this I think.  

RE: Which Mask is Better to Protect Covid-19 Virus

I was curious about the "64% immunity in school children" claim so ran some numbers...

• The US population as of December 2020 is approx. 330,676544 per the US Census Bureau.
• The US population of students enrolled in public, private, and charter schools was approx. 76,400,000 per the US Census Bureau 2018 data.
• Using the cited immunity ratio for school-age children, this means that approx. 48,896,000 (roughly 15% of the US population) have immunity and 27,504,000 (roughly 8% of the US population) do not.
• There were approx. 4,014,800 teachers in public, private, and charger schools per the National Center for Education Statistics 2018 data. This is approximately 1% of the US population exposed to both immune and non-immune children.

By my calculation, that means approx. 9% of the US population is potentially vulnerable and likely to be exposed in a high-density K-12 setting. This does not include colleges and universities, nor does it include non-teacher faculty and staff (e.g. principals and janitors) at schools.

RE: Which Mask is Better to Protect Covid-19 Virus

Posted by: @bobstro

I was curious about the "64% immunity in school children" claim so ran some numbers...

 

I have heard that but not sure I buy it.  I think they less likely to be symptomatic or have a less severe infection.  

RE: Which Mask is Better to Protect Covid-19 Virus

Posted by: @cwbullet

Posted by: @bobstro

I was curious about the "64% immunity in school children" claim so ran some numbers...

I have heard that but not sure I buy it.  I think they less likely to be symptomatic or have a less severe infection.  

Even if the fantastical stories are true and we use the most conservative best-case scenarios, we're into the numbers that are still horrifying. I sometimes think people overlook the fact that a virus has an unlimited capacity to kill and doesn't get tired. It can last longer than we can if we don't try to slow it down.

RE: Which Mask is Better to Protect Covid-19 Virus

@bobstro

THey are not.  I just pulled the data from GA and the Southeast US - 8-10% of new infections are in less than 18 year fo age and half of those are less than 12.

RE: Which Mask is Better to Protect Covid-19 Virus

@cybrsage

Why then is the United States, a country with 6 percent of the world population, have almost 20 percent of the deaths worldwide of this virus?

I live in Spain and have seen how following the recommendations of the WHO, along with common sense reduce the patient load at the hospital ICUs. I may be spending Christmas this year without all of us sitting around the table; however, next year we'll be able to sit all of us together without an empty chair.

I wear a hybrid mask, one that is certified by three European governments to provide close to the same protection of an  N95 mask.  

I may have gotten the virus early on following a visit to the ER  early on, a week later I had flu like symptoms along with a loss of taste and smell. There were other symptoms of COVID-19, but this does not keep me from being socially correct and following the guidelines of the government here. I knew a person who caught the virus that regrettably thought to be immune, he caught it again, went to the ICU and died alone. 

Too many people died early on due to political ignorance of scientific facts, how many have to die due to personal stupidity? 

RE: Which Mask is Better to Protect Covid-19 Virus

@pcweber

This is a topic I know about.  You buying into false narritive from the news.  The fact is that most American’s are wearing masks.  

Because:

1. We have more testing of people who pass.  Per capita, the UK and US leads the world in testing performed.  In many facilites, we test everyone who comes in for admission or surgery.  If you die, many areas report the death as a covid related death even if it were caused by a gun shot.  That is partially sarcastic but you get the point.    
2. The US is one of the most Obese and sedentary countires on Earth.  We work more hours and spend out days seated.  
3. Everyone is looking at total deaths and not deaths per capita.  The US is number 10 here behind Spain.  We are a huge country in population and size. 
4. Many other countries are under reporting and under testing.   Spain is close - # 5 deaths and #6 testing.  USA is #2 in testing and #10 in deaths.   China is under reporting and under testing.  

 Sure we can do better.  We test more and report more.  

RE: Which Mask is Better to Protect Covid-19 Virus

Posted by: @cwbullet

I am not sure that any deaths from covid are acceptable.  I wish we could have eliminated COVID earlier.  It was not in the cards.  We have another 6-12 months of this I think.  

Agreed.

I find it fascinating that no one ever cared about the 600,000 deaths yearly from the flu but so many are going insane over this coronavirus.   The people going bonkers now are the same people who will go back to not caring about the 600,000 yearly deaths from the flu once this pandemic ends.

Too bad the CDC lied at the start and, in Feb, said covid does not pass from human to human.  Hqd they not lied the pandemic would be very different now.v

RE: Which Mask is Better to Protect Covid-19 Virus

All I know is to follow the science.  The scientific studies show what I posted is true.  The study has been peer reviewed and found to be correct. 

Go ahead and write papers showing that paper is flawed, get them peer reviewed, and we can go from there.  Anecdotal evidence is not good enough, for me at least, when true studies are available for use.

RE: Which Mask is Better to Protect Covid-19 Virus

@cwbullet

Where I live here in Spain was one of the hardest hit areas in Europe, two friends, both doctors who'd done housecalls passed away in March. Several people living in my  neighborhood also died due to Covid-19. The nearby hospital was overwhelmed by their patient load, once the first wave ended they've kept the load below 30%.

The autonomous leaders have been proactive as they fight the pandemic, closing areas identified as basic health zones. Thus leaving other areas open with restrictions and curfews. 

It's rare to run into anyone not wearing a mask in public. However, there are many in the supermarket that refuse to adhere to social distancing. 

One last note, PCRs have been a requirement for any hospital procedures since six or seven months. 

RE: Which Mask is Better to Protect Covid-19 Virus

I suspect the over reporting done in the US is due to how the nation is setup and run.  The US is not one large nation, but a federation of 50 semi independent states (think of the Federation in Star Trek, each planet is semi independent and rules itself but subject to the Federation rules amd governance as well.  Vulcan has its own government but must listen to the Federation government also).

The issue is the fed gov is giving each state money to help offset covid costs and it is given out based on the number of positive cases in a state.  So a state has a big incentive to make their numbers as high as possible.  Follow the money. 

Then add to it the sudden gaining of absolute power granted to so many Governors.  Power tends to corrupt, but absolute powerful corrupts absolutely. 

RE: Which Mask is Better to Protect Covid-19 Virus

@cybrsage

Sort of.  Our consitution grants the federal goverment certain areas of control and what is not in those areas of control are restricted the control of local or state government.  The goal of the constitution is to limit federal power and prevent tyranny.  

We have done a decent job of attacking the pandemic and soon the world wil be able to thank the efforts for delivering vaccines.  I know we did nto do it alone, but we played a significant role.  

It is easy to criticize from the living room couch.    

RE: Which Mask is Better to Protect Covid-19 Virus

Posted by: @cybrsage

[...] I find it fascinating that no one ever cared about the 600,000 deaths yearly from the flu but so many are going insane over this coronavirus.

There were approx. 60,000 deaths in the US to "influenza & pneumonia" in 2017. At that time, there were yearly campaigns for annual flu vaccinations. I was able to get vaccinated at an airport one year, and my local town has annual drives for the elderly.  Flu vaccines are updated yearly in an attempt to stay ahead of mutations. The current wave of COVID vaccines was not developed entirely this year. Work has been underway to develop vaccines that will be effective against all flu strains and not just a single annual variant, and from what I've read, a lot of those same techniques, as well as previous work done on SARS and others, have borne fruit with the COVID vaccines. Those long-term investments do pay off.

It is true that 60,000 deaths in the US gets less attention than 300,000, but the fact that COVID is many times as transmissible and deadly certainly explains that. The other big difference is that those infected with COVID are infectious well before the onset of symptoms.

I certainly don't recall a year in which flu hasn't made the headlines, and many of the same precautions (distancing as much as possible, esp. when sick, isolating the elderly and vulnerable, hand washing, and face coverings) have been recommended for years. I certainly recall local school closings when conditions warranted it.

 The people going bonkers now are the same people who will go back to not caring about the 600,000 yearly deaths from the flu once this pandemic ends.

In the end, we're going to have better tools available to fight both. We're lucky COVID isn't even more lethal and should be learning lessons from this experience.

Too bad the CDC lied at the start and, in Feb, said covid does not pass from human to human.  Hqd they not lied the pandemic would be very different now.v

The CDC "lied" in the same way your weather station lies about impending storms. The amount and accuracy of information changes from day to day. Early guidance was partially incorrect (face masks initially not suggested, but distancing and handwashing emphasized) but adjusted. It continues to be modified based on changing conditions. When a storm changes course, it's not wise to ignore evacuation orders simply because the track originally showed it going somewhere else.

RE: Which Mask is Better to Protect Covid-19 Virus

As it happens, my brother is Co-Autor in this study. I talked to him about the results 2 days ago. Children are as infectious as everybody else.