Pandemic  

Probably not

I believe this variant of covid will be much like the measles, polio and the 1918 pandemic flu.

It will always be out in the wild and the only thing to combat it is to get some kind of immunity thruout the population. Either thru infections antibodies or vaccinations antibodies.

The H1N1 (bird-flu?) is still out in the wild, but is not as virulent as the covid variant sars2.

In my country, Sweden, they each year mix vaccinations for the "common winter flu" which still claims less lives in total then the covid has done here (around 500-1000 death/year, but it causes similar symtoms but not as severe and quick sickness.)

My guess is they will eventually mix in covid-vaccins in with the "regular" seasonal flu vaccines.

But with it said, i really hope it ends soon too.

covid

Posted by: @mrstoned

The H1N1 (bird-flu?) is still out in the wild, but is not as virulent as the covid variant sars2.

But with it said, i really hope it ends soon too.

You are right.  H1N1 is really a family of viruses of the Influenza A variety.  As a physician struggling to plan treatment operations for a large medical center and section of the US, I and my team are tired of this operation tempo.  

I believe this variant of covid will be much like the measles, polio and the 1918 pandemic flu.

It will probably become a childhood disease; children survive it well by and large, then people will have low level immunity for life, catching it every few years as a seasonal cold and refreshing immunity each time.

Many infections are far more dangerous if first encountered as an adult.

Cheerio,

Maybe

Posted by: @diem

I believe this variant of covid will be much like the measles, polio and the 1918 pandemic flu.

It will probably become a childhood disease; children survive it well by and large, then people will have low level immunity for life, catching it every few years as a seasonal cold and refreshing immunity each time.

Many infections are far more dangerous if first encountered as an adult.

Cheerio,

You might be right.  I think the delta variant may indicated where this is going.  

Right now, all of the local hospital are full and they patients keep coming.  

Right now, all of the local hospital are full and they patients keep coming.  

Here, (UK), we have many fewer COVID19 active infections in hospital than we did, the vaccines are working well, but there is a worrying secondary trend.

About half the intensive care beds are occupied by young-ish adults (20s - 30s) who had mild disease long before vaccines were available and mostly not needing hospitalisation, but now, 6-12 months on, they have kidney failure due to long-covid.

Cheerio,

Good to hear

Posted by: @diem

Right now, all of the local hospital are full and they patients keep coming.  

Here, (UK), we have many fewer COVID19 active infections in hospital than we did, the vaccines are working well, but there is a worrying secondary trend.

About half the intensive care beds are occupied by young-ish adults (20s - 30s) who had mild disease long before vaccines were available and mostly not needing hospitalisation, but now, 6-12 months on, they have kidney failure due to long-covid.

Cheerio,

 

Great to hear.  

Posted by: @cwbullet

Are we ever going to be out of this?  This has to end!  

You're the doc, you tell me.  😉

Seriously, around here (Omaha) at least, things have been fairly stable, but many areas of the southern US (including some parts of Missouri, which is not that far from where I live) are getting hammered.

Locally we have a fairly good vaccination rate, particularly with older adults, and most of outstate Nebraska is very sparse so transmission is low.  Worst outbreaks we have are in packing houses and nursing homes.

Yes, the recent cases seem to be younger, on average, as they are the ones who tend to be not vaccinated.

Younger

Yes, the patients are younger.  We are seeing patient in their first month of life.  

Do you have any inside info on when they may approve vaccines for those younger than 12?

How about infants, who, as you say, are indeed vulnerable to infection?

Maintaining in NE, community mind set helps

Here in New England, things are pretty good. We've got stellar vaccination rates, and people don't have hangups about putting on a mask when it makes sense. Hospitalization rates are low, and life is more-or-less normal, although movie theaters aren't very popular.

Our biggest problem has been the influx of out-of-staters who like coming here without being vaccinated because we are vaccinated (grr). We regularly see a spike on Cape Cod and the islands. 

What was interesting is that Provincetown, which is a major tourist destination on Cape Cod, handled Delta well. They deserve credit for containing things and (so far at least) cases-per-100,000 have dropped back down. That community self-reported the recent increase in Delta breakthrough cases among vaccinated individuals even before officials were aware of the problem. Although most cases weren't serious enough to require medical attention, that community is tuned to respond to transmissible diseases and were very proactive in engaging with officials. Things seem to be settling down again after they were responsible with isolation and masking. If nothing else, that shows how well things can work if everyone has a reasonable mind set and gives me hope for the future. I just hope we collectively get to that mind set before more dangerous variants start to arrive.

Children

They are testing it right now.  The data I have seen is inconclusive.  Most should come out in a month or so.  

Posted by: @cwbullet

They are testing it right now.  The data I have seen is inconclusive.  Most should come out in a month or so.  

Good!

That's a very vulnerable subset of the population.  Getting that sector vaccinated will really help.

Speaking very freely, and not trying to open a can of worms, but it seems like here in the States, the big hold-up is the ideological dislike of and resistance to taking the vaccine.  Pharmacies in Missouri have been said to report people requesting off-hours appointments and discretion due to the peer pressure to avoid the vaccine.

I haven't been to P'town in years, but it used to be Party Central in the 1970s with very heavy alcohol use and zero social distancing.  I can imagine a holiday weekend bringing in countless infected individuals, making the town a test case in breakthrough analysis.

I noticed on the NYT map that Barnstable County appears to be doing well, but Nantucket appearing to be a hotspot.  Hopefully they get that under control as well.

Common sense and fun can coexist

Posted by: @jsw

[...] I noticed on the NYT map that Barnstable County appears to be doing well, but Nantucket appearing to be a hotspot.  Hopefully they get that under control as well.

Nantucket went dark red after July 4th and most of Cape Cod was close behind. It's interesting that the islands seem to stay hot spots. I don't know if that's because they're such vacation destinations for out-of-staters, or because the rich folks hire a lot of workers who may not be up to standards. We had similar problems with all the out-of-state kids showing up for school last year.

P-town is, to say the least, "eclectic". A fairly tame family spot by day, but crazy at night. Have to give them props for looking out for their community though. They've shown you don't have to shut everything down if you're willing to be reasonable.

We had most of the state down to very low levels (though still risky) before July 4th. Heading back down now, and hoping it continues.

Hotbeds

You think the islands are hotbeds - just wait till there are 100s of big Petri dishes called stadiums start cooking COVID infections as college football starts.

just wait till there are 100s of big Petri dishes called stadiums start cooking COVID infections

It doesn't seem to be a big problem out of doors or in well ventilated areas.  The sports related surge in the UK a couple of month's back seems to have been related to fans travelling together to World Cup matches in large groups and to those who couldn't attend gathering in groups in pubs/bars indoors.

any inside info on when they may approve vaccines for those younger than 12?

The statistics are still fuzzy atm but it seems probable that 12 is about the balance point where the likelihood of a dangerous cytokine reaction to (some versions of) the vaccine equals the mortality risk of the disease.  It would make sense to go a little over the line to assist herd immunity but how far over is a tricky ethical decision.

Cheerio,

events

Posted by: @diem

just wait till there are 100s of big Petri dishes called stadiums start cooking COVID infections

It doesn't seem to be a big problem out of doors or in well ventilated areas.  The sports related surge in the UK a couple of month's back seems to have been related to fans travelling together to World Cup matches in large groups and to those who couldn't attend gathering in groups in pubs/bars indoors.

any inside info on when they may approve vaccines for those younger than 12?

The statistics are still fuzzy atm but it seems probable that 12 is about the balance point where the likelihood of a dangerous cytokine reaction to (some versions of) the vaccine equals the mortality risk of the disease.  It would make sense to go a little over the line to assist herd immunity but how far over is a tricky ethical decision.

Cheerio,

It is not the event, but the travel, indoor dining, drinking in bars, and hotels that will likely spread.  When folks drink, they do stupid stuff.  

I just got back from a conference in Las Vegas and thing were a lot more cautious than they are around here. At conference registration you had to show vaccine proof to pick up your badge and masks were required everywhere indoors. 

Lotsa chit chat and speculation about things like this dragging on to be a 3 year pandemic before it really blows over. 🙁

One thing that the bartenders and such were saying is that they are expecting that if the mask mandate is dropped before the Labor Day weekend, people are gonna party like it's 1999 and they will have a big spike in the middle of September with yet another round of restrictions and such, but if they don't, things will probably settle down. 

They've got a new stadium and pro football team and they are hoping and praying that each game doesn't become a  super-spreader event!

pandemic

Posted by: @annier

I just got back from a conference in Las Vegas and thing were a lot more cautious than they are around here. At conference registration you had to show vaccine proof to pick up your badge and masks were required everywhere indoors. 

Lotsa chit chat and speculation about things like this dragging on to be a 3 year pandemic before it really blows over. 🙁

One thing that the bartenders and such were saying is that they are expecting that if the mask mandate is dropped before the Labor Day weekend, people are gonna party like it's 1999 and they will have a big spike in the middle of September with yet another round of restrictions and such, but if they don't, things will probably settle down. 

They've got a new stadium and pro football team and they are hoping and praying that each game doesn't become a  super-spreader event!

I am a leader in the response to the pandemic and take it personally that we have not been successful.  I take every death as if I could have prevented it.  I am at the point where I just don't I don't know the solution.  I hope this does not drag on for 3 years or more.  

take it personally that we have not been successful.

A big problem atm is the group of vaccine deniers who obtusely refuse prophylaxis on unscientific grounds, often citing claims that the jabs contain mind controlling microchips or worse ... they are only about 5% of the population but skew strongly in the younger groups.  They suffer and die just like anyone else and maintain a pool of infection we could well do without.  I would love to see one of those microchips btw, all those features in a device that can pass through a millimetre scale needle must be astonishing bleeding-edge technology.

Cheerio,