Mini ship date poll  

RE: Mini ship date poll

I will never understand why some folks post fake info to just get the uproar.  

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Added. This will be interesting.

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I have added a second sheet with a few charts to help visualize the data. Quite interesting to look at. Hope we get more data in.

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Added my order, still wish I knew when this was shipping. Excited to do some test prints.... Maybe even sell some ornaments this year.

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Posted by: @charles-h13

Adding your order to this list and updating it as it ships is a service to all.  

Agreed, just imagine the tension for the first 1,000 printers after today's blog announcement:

We estimate the first batch of MINIs should start shipping on December 9th. The first batch is actually several hundred printers, not just a couple of units, so we won’t be able to send them within one day, of course. We aim to ship orders made during the first 24 hours after the announcement before the winter holidays. As always, we’ll update the shipping table once we have exact dates.

Have we made our desktop forensics about the first 24 hours yet? The YT video was uploaded Saturday 16:00h-ish. The supposed first 1,000 printers were ordered up to around midnight 12./13. Oct (I'm generously assuming here that not each order included a MINI, but others included more than one).

So from December 9, the order document and this thread will be burning.

RE: Mini ship date poll

We estimate the first batch of MINIs should start shipping on December 9th. The first batch is actually several hundred printers, not just a couple of units, so we won’t be able to send them within one day, of course. We aim to ship orders made during the first 24 hours after the announcement before the winter holidays. As always, we’ll update the shipping table once we have exact dates.

So, reading this, Prusa is assembling a batch of 400+ units (several usually means 4 or more).  They have not yet completed any of the units to ship, else they'd be shipping (probably still working on firmware bugs that prevent the product form being at all useful).  Also, the sentence "We aim to ship..." directly states "before the winter holidays," which directly contradicts the first sentence claiming to ship on the 9th.  Reading between the lines, do not expect minis to ship before the New Year. 

So much for the "shipping in November" promise.  Prusa is 1:1 on their historic "never ships on time" stat.

RE: Mini ship date poll

Posted by: @tim-m30

We estimate the first batch of MINIs should start shipping on December 9th. The first batch is actually several hundred printers, not just a couple of units, so we won’t be able to send them within one day, of course. We aim to ship orders made during the first 24 hours after the announcement before the winter holidays. As always, we’ll update the shipping table once we have exact dates.

So, reading this, Prusa is assembling a batch of 400+ units (several usually means 4 or more).  They have not yet completed any of the units to ship, else they'd be shipping (probably still working on firmware bugs that prevent the product form being at all useful).  Also, the sentence "We aim to ship..." directly states "before the winter holidays," which directly contradicts the first sentence claiming to ship on the 9th.  Reading between the lines, do not expect minis to ship before the New Year. 

So much for the "shipping in November" promise.  Prusa is 1:1 on their historic "never ships on time" stat.

 

I understand it as

-they start shipping on December 9
-by begin of the holidays (either 20. or 24. December), the orders placed in the first 24h after the announcement will be shipped

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Holidays are meant Christmas Eve + 25th + 26th, then Jan 1st. 

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@bodo - Rereading it, I think you're right.  But out the door by the end of December ... only a month late for dozens ... is still late and not their November promise.  As for those that ordered the next day?  I wonder if the Prusa shelves have those parts, or if they are on order yet.

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Posted by: @crawlerin

Holidays are meant Christmas Eve + 25th + 26th, then Jan 1st. 

That's the holidays, yes. In reality, the holiday break starts with every employee leaving for their vacation, and ends with them returning. In my office, two thirds don't even bother to come in on Friday, 20th. Between Christmas and New Year, you will find a couple of dozens spread over almost 2,000 workplaces, with about 85% back when the school holidays ends in CW2.

So if maison Prusa is anything like that, manufacturing and logistics won't even get close to 10% pre-christmas output during that time. Or they shutdown completely with only support working from home, having an eye on the zlaté prasátko.

RE: Mini ship date poll

Posted by: @tim-m30

@bodo - Rereading it, I think you're right.  But out the door by the end of December ... only a month late for dozens ... is still late and not their November promise.  As for those that ordered the next day?  I wonder if the Prusa shelves have those parts, or if they are on order yet.

I agree with your sentiment. If the assumptions are right, they aim for sending less than 1,000 Minis between 9th and 23th, with a number of them already built between end of November and the 9th. Looks to me that they don't bother about the delay, thinking those customers have paid anyway.

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@tim-m30

This how I took it.  

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Well, I'll assume there is a near of 15k orders already done for just the Mini - that will take a lot of time to deliver)

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@grytole

Yep.  I wonder what high-level math goes into calculating the shipping dates.  

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I think 15k is high.  Figure 400 first day, 450 the second, 500 the third, then declining 25 a day after, until the run rate hits 200 a day... I see only 8500 printers being ordered the first month.  No where near 15,000.  

Then, let's do some reverse engineering: how many farm printers does Prusa have?  How many platters of parts can they print in a day.  Their "world record run" used customer printers to achieve that 1000+ number. 

Somewhere didn't they say their factory floor has 400 or so printers?  At 8 hours per platter, and there are many platters to print to build a single parts set, let's be aggressive and say they can print a full set of parts in a day, using one printer.  The Einsy case (base, door, and hinges) is 7 hours alone... so 24 hours is pretty optimistic.

That printer farm is probably why they limit batches to 400 or so.  And let's not forget they are still selling MK3S printers, though probably fewer since the $350 price of the mini is quite attractive.

With 8500 in backlog, at 400 printer parts set per day they are lagging orders by at least 21 days, if they start shipping 30 days after they opened the order queue.  But then, I doubt they are making 400 printers a day.  It's likely closer to 150 a day, which agrees with the statement they already have shipments planned out in February, a 60 day backlog.  60*150 = 9,000.

Of course, I'm guessing. lol.  They might be suffering from acute success and selling 500 Mini printers a day and never catch up to the order rate until they buy that building next door and build another floor of 500 mini's to meet production needs.

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@johnny-laoban

Yea I hope you are right! I ordered the black option also

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@k9bub

A little optimism never hurt anyone 😉 

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@blackbird

You and me both! I wanted to have something to play with on Christmas. I ordered the second day

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Cancelled my Mini order for the MK3S Black Friday bundle.  It was just too tempting.

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Mini orderer queue says thank you for another waiting slot closer to delivery 😛