Unofficial Prusa Mini Wait Thread  

RE: Unofficial Prusa Mini Wait Thread

@nox

Of course it is likely the early purchasers are more enthusiastic and more involved in the community, and thus more likely to update the sheet. This assumption that later purchasers were less likely to update the spreadsheet enables us to estimate a lower bound on the number of orders that have shipped, by using the initial 24 hour reporting rate as our limit. We know from Prusa that there were more than 1000 MINI orders in the first 24 hours. We don't know exactly this 24 hour cutoff but we can be generous in our assumption and take the 170 orders from the spreadsheet from 12th and 13th, giving a 17% selfreporting fraction.
There are 460 orders marked as shipped or received and if we assume that 17% selfreporting holds, it gives us an estimated lower bound of 2700 orders shipped so far by Prusa. This leaves 5300 unshipped orders from 2019, or 38 days of production at their claimed 140 units every day. The current shipping date they provide for the last of those orders is week of June 22nd or 75 days from their "140 per day" announcement.
I'll let you draw your own conclusion from that.

RE: Unofficial Prusa Mini Wait Thread

I try to look at it from all sides, but I cannot see where I made mistake.

- Prusa stated there were 8k orders in 2019.

- 76% of all 2019 orders were shipped according to our spreadsheet

- that would mean 100 shippments/ business day

- 6000 printers shipped, 2000 remaining

- 2000 / 100 = 20 days remaining

- Prusa says 50 days

- prusa says on shop web on the top that the production continues an usual.

- prusa says they are ramping up to 140 printers / day (lets assume business day)

I just don't know how this all matches up. For me it doesn't.

People on chat couldn't explain the 140 vs three more weeks paradox.

RE: Unofficial Prusa Mini Wait Thread

Yeah! My Mini arrived! 🙂 Can't wait until it's end of the work day!

@samstinson @hawwwran You're both right that something does not add up with the data we have. But I don't think that we'll ever get more data than that. I'm sure that Prusa does its best do produce the Minis as fast as possible and I think they are giving more information than other companies would do, but of course more would be better. 

I personally would love to have a more precise delivery-estimation-tracker instead of a table which is only updated every 3-5 weeks. And I'd love to know why they ship the printers so "randomly" (where the order dates are even days or weeks apart).

RE: Unofficial Prusa Mini Wait Thread

@hawwwran

But your assuming that 6000 printers have been shipped.. I dont think its anywhere near that number. Your spread sheet only shows 8% of the total number of orders. If the 8000 orders for 2019 is true.. then the only thing I can think of is they have not been doing a great deal of production up until now...

Lets assume they were producing an average of 50 per day from End Oct until March.. So..

Oct.. 200  Ramp up took longer than expected. so numbers lower.
Nov.. 800
Dec.. 800, Christmas vacation

So 8000 orders.. less what was produced.. 1800... still 6200 to ship

Again.. all assumptions.. I am betting we will never know the real numbers.. but even mine seem on the high side with 6 months lead time from order date.

RE: Unofficial Prusa Mini Wait Thread

Posted by: @stephensmith

@hawwwran

But your assuming that 6000 printers have been shipped.. I dont think its anywhere near that number. Your spread sheet only shows 8% of the total number of orders. If the 8000 orders for 2019 is true.. then the only thing I can think of is they have not been doing a great deal of production up until now...

Lets assume they were producing an average of 50 per day from End Oct until March.. So..

Oct.. 200  Ramp up took longer than expected. so numbers lower.
Nov.. 800
Dec.. 800, Christmas vacation

So 8000 orders.. less what was produced.. 1800... still 6200 to ship

Again.. all assumptions.. I am betting we will never know the real numbers.. but even mine seem on the high side with 6 months lead time from order date.

 

 

The 6000 comes up from conclusion that our spreadsheet represents an even cut from the real orders. It's not perfect, but I think It's pretty close. It does not matter how big part of all orders is in our spreadsheet. What does matter is the even spread. I'm working with an assumption that every Xth customer uses our spreadsheet. That way if 75% of orders in the spreadsheet is shipped, 75% of all orders is shipped. Sure I know it's not perfect, but it cannot be more precise without more data.

If they would ship only 2000 printers until now, our spreadsheet would show roughly 25% of all orders until today and and 6000 printers would need to fit in the november and december as the october has been shipped and we know the number is 8000 for 2019. We also know that the closer to the release date you go the more printers per day were ordered (obviously, release date hype). All and and all, they couldn't ship just 2000 printers until today. If all the numbers they say are true.

RE: Unofficial Prusa Mini Wait Thread

@nox

With me its the exact opposite with delivery companies... DPD is worst but GLS is trying to dethrone them, Hermes is quite good and DHL is fine. Amazon varies from day to day. I gues it always depends on the last person in the chain... DPD used to "hide" my packets under the doormat. In Plain sight for everone who passed by our house.
Even the first 3D Printer I ordered, which was a really huge package... for which i took a day off to be at home when it arrives. just to fall over it when i left the house in the evening.

completely unrelated question: is there any documentation what prusa changes in the revisions of the Mini? so that i know what issues i read about here in the forums i don't have to check when i finally get my printer?

RE: Unofficial Prusa Mini Wait Thread

Changes to firmware and printer parts are documented to some extent on their respective git repositories. There are also some how tos and assembly guides on the Prusa web site. But to be honest the main issues don't seem to be recognised as such by Prusa, the only source are the users in these forums (and maybe elsewhere like Reddit).

RE: Unofficial Prusa Mini Wait Thread

thanks... than i'll check with github etc. as soon as my printer arrives which of the known issues are already resolved.

RE: Unofficial Prusa Mini Wait Thread

Posted by: @hawwwran

People on chat couldn't explain the 140 vs three more weeks paradox.

People on chat aren't data hounds & probably not informed or authorized to answer such matters. 

BTW, I like your tag line about bubblegum. Is that new? 

RE: Unofficial Prusa Mini Wait Thread

Posted by: @burtronix

Posted by: @hawwwran

People on chat couldn't explain the 140 vs three more weeks paradox.

People on chat aren't data hounds & probably not informed or authorized to answer such matters. 

BTW, I like your tag line about bubblegum. Is that new? 

Thanks, yes I added it yesterday 😀

RE: Unofficial Prusa Mini Wait Thread

@hawwwran

It's hilarious! 😂

RE: Unofficial Prusa Mini Wait Thread

My mini was delivered today 🤩 

Line 445 marked it as delivered. Can't wait to finish work and get to it.

The only thing I was not happy about is that the white PETG that I got is not prusament. Its manufactured for Prusa. I didn't know they had other manufacturers make filaments for them. I cant find it anywhere on the eshop now so I guess they stopped selling it. The bag was not completely airtight hopefully the quality is good.

RE: Unofficial Prusa Mini Wait Thread

@geoper2

Congrats 😀 Have fun!

RE: Unofficial Prusa Mini Wait Thread

Posted by: @geoper2

My mini was delivered today 🤩 

Line 445 marked it as delivered. Can't wait to finish work and get to it.

The only thing I was not happy about is that the white PETG that I got is not prusament. Its manufactured for Prusa. I didn't know they had other manufacturers make filaments for them. I cant find it anywhere on the eshop now so I guess they stopped selling it. The bag was not completely airtight hopefully the quality is good.

 IMG_20200415_110512.jpg

Could you please show us the non-prusament closer?

RE: Unofficial Prusa Mini Wait Thread

Posted by: @geoper2

The only thing I was not happy about is that the white PETG that I got is not prusament. Its manufactured for Prusa. I didn't know they had other manufacturers make filaments for them. I cant find it anywhere on the eshop now so I guess they stopped selling it.

It might be this one: https://shop.prusa3d.com/en/filament/133-white-petg-filament-1kg.html  

RE: Unofficial Prusa Mini Wait Thread

Why are there orders from the 16th and 23rd of November marked shipped (lines 505 and 520 on the spreadsheet), when I'm still waiting on mine from 13th November to ship? Are some people getting preferential treatment? 

RE: Unofficial Prusa Mini Wait Thread

Posted by: @gordon-w

Posted by: @geoper2

The only thing I was not happy about is that the white PETG that I got is not prusament. Its manufactured for Prusa. I didn't know they had other manufacturers make filaments for them. I cant find it anywhere on the eshop now so I guess they stopped selling it.

 

It might be this one: https://shop.prusa3d.com/en/filament/133-white-petg-filament-1kg.html  

I am pretty sure this is Filament-PM’s White PETG.  I have gotten good results from it and purchased it though Amazon:Filament-PM White PETG.

RE: Unofficial Prusa Mini Wait Thread

I'm pretty new to all of this.  Can anyone point me in the right direction on correcting the shifting that is happening between layers?

I've noticed this on a few prints that have some height to them now.

RE: Unofficial Prusa Mini Wait Thread

Posted by: @khyzersoze

I'm pretty new to all of this.  Can anyone point me in the right direction on correcting the shifting that is happening between layers?

I've noticed this on a few prints that have some height to them now.

This is on a Mini, right?

RE: Unofficial Prusa Mini Wait Thread

There were three orders marked as shipped in our spreadsheet yesterday.

One from 4.Nov

Two from 7.Nov

Five orders were marked as delivered

MPETS is 18.May

(My printer's estimated time of shipping)